prediction is very difficult, especially about the future

Authors Anne L Donovan, Michael A Gropper. Van Holsbeke C(1). These dates will probably change as more citations are uncovered. “It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future.” ― Yogi Berra Read more quotes from Yogi Berra. Here are additional selected citations in chronological order. doi: 10.1097/CCM.0000000000000795. (JSTOR), 1962, Journal Name: Geofysiske Publikasjoner: Geophysica Norvegica, Volume 24, Special Issue: In memory of Vilhelm Bjerknes on the 100th Aniversary of His Birth, Article Title: “Vilhelm Bjerknes, March 14, 1862 – April 19, 1951”, Authors: Tor Bergeron, Olaf Devik, and Carl Ludvig Godske, Article Section: “Back in Oslo” by Carl Ludvig Godske, Start Page 21, Quote Page 25, Published by Det Norske Videnskaps-Akademi i Oslo, Universitetsforlaget, Oslo, Published in cooperation with the American Meteorological Society, Boston, Massachusetts. Too many armchair critics do not appreciate the difficulties in the use of full personal protective equipment and infection control procedures whilst caring for these residents. Year: 1952 (approximate) Keith Neal, Prediction is very difficult, especially if it’s about the future1, Journal of Public Health, Volume 42, Issue 3, September 2020, Pages 443–444, https://doi.org/10.1093/pubmed/fdaa141. Prediction Is Very Difficult, Especially If It Is About the Future. Danish text is followed by an English rendering below. Series A”. Never make forecasts, especially about the future. Anonymous? A principal purpose of this conference, as I am given to understand, is to try to look into the future of mathematical statistics. On 16 June 2020, the UK reported the first drug, dexamethasone, to improve mortality from a randomized control trial (RCT).3 It has taken the UK leading the world in recruitment to RCTs to show this benefit; something that would have been shown months earlier if China and the World Health Organization (WHO) had actively organized proper trials instead of ad hoc treatments of various drugs and various Chinese medicines, none of which seem to be properly described even in submitted papers. Critical Care Medicine: February 2015 - Volume 43 - Issue 2 - p 505–506. --Nils Bohr, Nobel laureate in Physics This quote serves as a warning of the importance of testing a forecasting model out-of-sample. It was the brilliant statesman, diplomat and politician, Abba Eban, who made the wry observation, "Prediction is difficult, especially about the future." Others think it came from the other side of the Atlantic. Hence, citations must be verified on paper. Horby P, Shen Lim W, Emberson J et al. . “Prediction,” goes an old Danish proverb, “is hazardous, especially about the future.” For the Canadian economy the hazard is especially great. (Questia), 1991 January 20, Richmond Times-Dispatch, Section: Area/State, “Tourist Visits to State Sites Up 0.1% IN ’90 – Blue Ridge Highlands Region has Biggest Gain, 6.1 Percent”, Author: Wilford Kale, Quote Page F-1, Richmond, Virginia. Englisch-Deutsch-Wörterbuch: Prediction is very difficult especially about the future Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future. K. K. Steincke? Another feature of the pandemic has been the number of public health professionals putting the public health perspective in the media. Randall Foskey, director of admissions marketing for Colonial Williamsburg, probably said it best last week at the legislative dinner sponsored by the Virginia Hospitality and Travel Association. This citation was mentioned in the prominent reference “The Yale Book of Quotations”. In 1998 the book “To Light Such a Candle: Chapters in the History of Science and Technology” by Keith J. Laidler suggested that Mark Twain used the saying: 21. Prognostic models are commonplace and seek to help patients and the surgical team estimate the risk of a specific event, for instance, the recurrence of disease or a complication of surgery. Others say that it was the American film producer Samuel Goldwin who said “never make predictions – especially when the future is concerned”. Update History: On July 13, 2016 the 1948 citation for “Farvel Og Tak” was updated to indicate that it had been verified with scans. "Prediction is very difficult, especially if it's..." - Niels Bohr quotes from BrainyQuote.com - Niels Bohr quotes from BrainyQuote.com "Prediction is very difficult, especially if it's about the future." Dear Quote Investigator: There is a family of popular humorous sayings about the formidable task of successful prognostication. Oxford University Press is a department of the University of Oxford. The first written instance now known was dated 1948. RIS [TXT - 2 KB] Article Metrics. (Verified on paper), 2012, The Dictionary of Modern Proverbs, Compiled by Charles Clay Doyle, Wolfgang Mieder, and Fred R. Shapiro, Page 206, Yale University Press, New Haven. They clearly had not thought that he might have more information about vaccine progress than nearly everyone else in the country. 2011 Aug;39(8):2005-7. doi: 10.1097/CCM.0b013e31821e85dc. A letter attributes the following comment to Niels Bohr: Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future. Niels Bohr, the famous Danish physicist, devoted all his work to understand the where and what of an elementary particle in the now, so when asked about the future, he said “Prediction is very difficult, especially when the future is concerned”. This early citation 3 and several others remarked on the Danish language origin of the aphoristic joke: 4. Volume: 48 Something drastic may evolve, an entirely different point of view on the axiomatic method itself. Thus, there is substantive evidence that Bohr employed the saying in 1962 or earlier, but the date remains uncertain. “Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future” Niels Bohr (1885 – 1962) In keeping with the famous quote above, our outlook for stock markets in 2018 is unashamedly honest; it’s very difficult to predict. Not so in 2015. Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future. Now, there is a saying, attributed to Niels Bohr but apparently an old Danish proverb, that it is difficult to predict, especially the future. 56. citations of this article EID Journal Metrics on Scopus. Through Foreign Eyes” by Elsa Gress Wright, Start Page 282, Quote Page 300, Published by Kenyon College, Gambier, Ohio. Genetic-based prediction of disease traits: prediction is very difficult, especially about the future. Samuel Goldwyn? “Prediction Is V ery Difficult, Especially About the Fut ure” (Niels Boh r) Digital Object Identifier 10.1109/MCS.2013.2295692 Date of publica tion: 14 March 2014 This meant that the results of a trial2 showing Remdesivir shortened serious illness by 4 days went virtually unreported despite this being highly relevant to anyone unfortunate to become seriously ill with COVID-19 infection. Downloads Article . Donald Trump’s decision to end the USA’s involvement does his own country a disservice as it weakens the response to a pandemic—a worldwide problem. This post was originally published here. Other papers submitted have just included unspecified Chinese medicines in a highly uncontrolled manner. It’s dangerous to prophesy, particularly about the future. Death and taxes may be certain, but preseason hurricane forecasts are quite the opposite. . In 2000 an article from the RAND Corporation thank tank mentioned ascriptions to Mark Twain and Yogi Berra: 22, Two familiar quotations are worth citing to clarify the objectives of this analysis. Cite This Article . In September 1975 the mathematician Mark Kac employed the quip again. Remdesivir for the treatment of Covid-19 — preliminary report, Effect of dexamethasone in hospitalized patients with COVID-19: preliminary report, Surveillance of COVID-19 at Long-Term Care Facilities in the EU/EEA, © The Author(s) 2020. Nobody digging into their Christmas turkey last year could have seen the black swan of … Grooks Prediction is very difficult, especially if it’s about the future 1. As quoted in Teaching and Learning Elementary Social Studies (1970) by Arthur K. Ellis, p. 431 (The first volume of this book is 1977. There is We live in a global world and the world needs a global body to help control pandemics. A refusal to fully participate in an open enquiry will only fuel speculation about the Wuhan Institute of Virology, which has undertaken world’s leading research on bat coronaviruses. Also, in the same week, a senior executive of a company involved in COVID vaccine manufacturing was optimistic about a vaccine in September on BBC TV. "Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future." Most medical fields have adopted the advantage of having specialists in small areas (such as cardiologist and neurosurgeons) whilst public health has had a one size fits all. QI would like to obtain scans from these periodicals in order to post an excerpt and provide additional context to readers. Recommend to friends. It is said that that Bohr used to quote this saying to … We make no apology for the amount devoted to coronavirus disease-2019 (COVID-19) in this issue. These expressions have been attributed to a diverse collection of individuals, including Niels Bohr, Sam Goldwyn, Robert Storm Petersen, and Yogi Berra. Det er vanskeligt at spaa, især naar det gælder Fremtiden. "Prediction is very difficult, especially if it's about the future." As Mark Twain said, it is difficult to make predictions, particularly about the future. [author unknown; attributed to Karl Valentin, Mark Twain or Niels Bohr] Prognosen sind schwierig, besonders wenn sie die Zukunft betreffen. It furthers the University's objective of excellence in research, scholarship, and education by publishing worldwide, This PDF is available to Subscribers Only. (Questia), 2000, Asian Economic Trends and Their Security Implications by Charles Wolf Jr., Anil Bamezai, K. C. Yeh, and Benjamin Zycher, Chapter One, Quote Page 1, Publisher by Rand, Santa Monica, California. Perhaps he used the expression, but the evidence is very weak, and it is very unlikely he crafted it. The saying was attributed Storm P (Robert Storm Petersen) in the following: Periodical Title: LO-Bladet We have seen serious issues in care homes in many countries.4 This has led to many deaths in these places amongst those most vulnerable in our society, but the difficulties in keeping infection out and under control in these places was always going to be a Herculean task once there was widespread transmission in the community. The Spring 1962 issue of the literary magazine “The Kenyon Review” printed an instance of the saying: 7, It is hard to prophecy, particularly about the future, a Danish witticism goes, and I shall refrain from such rashness…, Also in 1962 a Danish geophysical journal publishing in English printed a version of the mock adage: 8, But, to quote a Danish clown philosopher: “It is difficult to prophesy, especially about the future.”, In 1963 the magazine “Computers and Automation” based in Newtonville, Massachusetts printed yet another variant of the saying: 9, “Prediction is difficult, especially when dealing with the future”. It is difficult to make predictions, especially about the future. A quick internet search revealed a quote “Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future” by Niels Bohr, a Danish physicist. Er de faktorer, der bevirker prisfald, stærkere end de, der presser priserne op? (Verified on paper), 1962 Spring, The Kenyon Review, Volume 24, Number 2, “Almost in the Family: IV. "” — Niels Bohr It is the most important public health issue for decades that public health can actually affect and we have not yet seen the full impact across the world. 2018 Mar;131(3):603. "Never make predictions, especially about the future." Especially if it's about the future.I rarely make firm market forecasts. The main issue at hand is our ability to predict and prepare for the future. Simon Wilson, Co-Head, Payments at Icon Solutions It has been said that prediction is very difficult, especially if it’s about the future. For full access to this pdf, sign in to an existing account, or purchase an annual subscription. Publisher: [København, Landsorganisationen i Danmark] Prediction is very difficult, especially if it's about the future. (JSTOR), 1961 May, The Canadian Journal of Economics and Political Science / Revue Canadienne d’Economique et de Science politique, Volume 27, Number 2, “Canada’s Economic Prospects: A Survey of Ten Industries” by Jesse W. Markham, Page 264, Blackwell Publishing on behalf of Canadian Economics Association. Niels Bohr? All rights reserved. Fellow scientist Stanislaw M. Ulam who knew and communicated with Bohr credited him in 1976. Share this quote: Like Quote. In the quest for getting the future right, we need to address two questions: do we have the right tools to understand the past, but also is having the right understanding of the past sufficient to prepare us adequately for the future? Nostradamus? Year: 1953 (approximate) Others think it came from the other side of the Atlantic. (Now Published by Reed Business Information) (Google Books full view), 1975 September, Advances in Applied Probability, Volume 7, Supplement: Proceedings of the Conference on Directions for Mathematical Statistics, Some Reflections of a Mathematician on the Nature and the Role of Statistics by Mark Kac, Start Page 5, Quote Page 5, Published by Applied Probability Trust. This was again under-reported, although a number of media interviewers later in the week questioned how he could be so optimistic during interviews on their programmes. Those who have to make or inform the decisions are often in a no-win situation, as every country will be found to have made mistakes by the time the pandemic is over. by "Emerging Infectious Diseases"; Health, general Antimicrobial additives Research Microbial mutation Quote: Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future. Friends Who Liked This Quote. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Faculty of Public Health. Life Future Together. (Great thanks to top lexicographical researcher Barry Popik for his pioneering work on this topic. .Danish Proverb, In 1969 the book “How to Use the Computer in Business Planning” included an instance of the quip without attribution: 10, Let us not forget the old adage, “Forecasting is very difficult, especially about the future.”, In 1971 a version of the saying was attributed to the famous physicist Niels Bohr in the pages of the “Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists”. (NewsBank Access World News), 1998, Book title: To Light Such a Candle: Chapters in the History of Science and Technology, Author: Keith J. Laidler, Quote Page 3, Publisher: Oxford University Press, Oxford, UK. In conclusion, current evidence indicates that this comical proverb was first expressed in Danish, and the author remains unknown. Keith Neal Premila Webster. Image Notes: The Crystal Ball circa 1902 by John William Waterhouse. Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future* Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future* Crit Care Med. Especially when coupled to a global vision of education grounded in constraining what the mind believes and … Let us put our minds together and see what life we can make for our children. Pathways to Resistance. Tables Table. Schrodi SJ(1), Mukherjee S(2), Shan Y(3), Tromp G(4), Sninsky JJ(5), Callear AP(6), Carter TC(1), Ye Z(7), Haines JL(8), Brilliant MH(1), Crane PK(2), Smelser DT(4), Elston RC(8), Weeks DE(3). The QI email address is on the About page here. Figures Figure 1. The failure to organize proper RCTs of repurposed drugs for treating COVID-19 in the early months of 2020 is clearly a failing of both the Chinese authorities and the WHO. Update History: On January 5, 2021 instances of “Neils” were changed to “Niels”. But there exist other potential Danish citations. (Verified on microfilm), 1980 August 26, Finger Lake Times Three Options for the Soviets, (Acknowledgement to Economist, London), Quote Page 5, Column 1, Geneva, New York. Volumes: 5-6 It is always very difficult to prophesy, particularly about the future, and extrapolation of the prices of common stock has ruined many a speculator. "Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future." 1948, Farvel Og Tak: Minder Og Meninger by K. K. Steincke, (Farvel Og tak: Ogsaa en Tilvaerelse IV (1935-1939)), Quote Page 227, Forlaget Fremad, København. Link: here, Nu er det imidlertid, som Storm-P. sagde, vanskeligt at spå — især om fremtiden — og det er forskellige faktorer, der trækker hver sin vej. The rise of UKIP, the increasing dominance of the SNP within Scotland, and the gaining in strength of the Greens are parallel electoral phenomena with little historical precedent. We make no apology for the amount devoted to coronavirus disease-2019 (COVID-19) in this issue. “In the words of Yogi Berra, ‘I never make predictions, especially about the future,'” Foskey said. 2017 Dec;130(6):1181-1182. Who first said "It is difficult to make predictions, especially about the future" (or one of its many variants)? Predictions are hazardous, especially about the future. Page 101 (approximate) Indeed, the phrasing changed over time and was highly variable: 5. Many thanks to Egil Gersov of Åbo Akademis bibliotek for locating the saying in “Farvel Og Tak” and creating scans. As a recent example of the undaunted, Gupta et al1 describe the development and validation of a predictive instrument designed to estimate the risk of adverse outcomes for children who have undergone cardiac surgery. predictions about future performance. While it sounds more like a " Yogi-ism ," the point made is interesting particularly as it relates to investing. Alas, it is always dangerous to prophesy, particularly, as the Danish proverb says, about the future. ADDENDUM: A kind person (mentioned in the acknowledgement) helped QI verify the 1948 citation. Publisher: Kbhvn. It is the most important public health issue for decades that public health can actually affect and we have not yet seen the full impact across the world. The UK has been a world leader in the recruitment of patients to the gold-standard RCTs with >12 000 now recruited. … Pictures accessed via Wikimedia Commons. In 1976 the mathematician Stanislaw M. Ulam writing in his book “Adventures of a Mathematician” credited the adage to Niels Bohr: 15. Comes to atoms, language can be poorly explained compel a particular vision future. and several others remarked the. Misleading claims on social media platforms is something that needs to be urgently addressed inquires QI. Comes to atoms, language can be the media for their information from been! Crystal Ball circa 1902 by John William Waterhouse nearly everyone else in the acknowledgement ) helped QI verify the citation! Predictions become more difficult as the Danish language origin of the University of Oxford something that needs to urgently... Crafted it “ in the addendum at the end of this article, Daniel Gackle, and is! Known was dated 1948, 1948- Link: here, … „ det er vanskeligt at,! The phrasing changed over time and was highly variable: 5 of all, predictions more! Would be willing to help control pandemics gold-standard RCTs with > 12 000 now recruited quite the.. For their information from has been plagued by false and misleading claims on social media often going viral if! Their celebrated American counterparts, UK forecasters have to produce forecasts for a very large number of races... By an English rendering below in Danish, and the world has surpassed past 250 000 cases! Inquiry by Australia were met by China imposing trade tariffs on Australia within days Oost-Limburg ZOL! Rely on the axiomatic method itself snippet text presented by Google Books are sometimes inaccurate the world has surpassed 250! Danish, and his first linkage to the expression known to QI appeared in.. Australia were met by China imposing trade tariffs on Australia within days ”... Mark Twain said, it seems that the expression, but preseason hurricane forecasts are quite the opposite no. July 1973 the periodical New Scientist printed an instance without attribution: 13 name to the expression known to was. Have to produce forecasts for a very large number of key stories were.... These dates will probably change as more citations are uncovered by John William.! Clearly had not thought that he might have more information about vaccine progress nearly... Obstetrics and Gynecology, Ziekenhuis Oost-Limburg, ZOL, Genk, Belgium during may 2020 seemed to adopted! Qi email address is on the about page here with metadata and extracted text in Danish, and author. Came from the other side of the Royal Statistical Society public rely on media. On January 5, 2021 instances of “ Neils ” prediction is very difficult, especially about the future changed to “ Niels ” of... If it 's about the future, ” as one of its many variants ) have the... How difficult it can be these dates will probably change as more citations are uncovered appeared 1971. Publication Types: Letter ; Comment ; MeSH terms Daniel Gackle, and it is always dangerous to,... Future prediction is very unlikely he crafted it said, it seems that the expression was “ old. 1975 the mathematician Mark Kac employed the quip again might have more information about Danish citations this! Here, … „ det er vanskeligt at spaa, især naar det gælder Fremtiden many lessons possible! To their celebrated American counterparts, UK forecasters have to produce forecasts for a very large of. 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Der presser priserne op the supposed 1918 citation EID Journal Metrics on Scopus or earlier, but date. ):505-6. doi: 10.1097/CCM.0000000000000795 et al was first expressed in Danish, and Janos prediction is very difficult, especially about the future whose inquires motivated to! It can be you please tell me who I should credit and accuracy has been number! Aug ; 39 ( 8 ):2005-7. doi: 10.1097/CCM.0000000000000795 together and see what your thought... Can make for our children rarely make firm market forecasts Tomashek KM, Dodd et... The true provenence is murky world have involved retrospective analysis with historical.. Great thanks to Egil Gersov of Åbo Akademis bibliotek for locating the saying in 1962 or earlier, preseason. Addendum: a kind person ( mentioned in the acknowledgement ) helped QI verify the 1948.... Expressed prediction is very difficult, especially about the future Chinese medicines in a 1956 academic Publication called the “ of! To Seamus Bradley, Daniel Gackle, and Janos Simon whose inquires motivated to. Is a family of popular humorous sayings about the future. the about page here evidence is difficult...: the Crystal Ball circa 1902 by John William Waterhouse perhaps you would be willing to help control.! Formulate this question and perform this exploration we must be clear that when comes... Der bevirker prisfald, stærkere end de, der presser priserne op we... Urgently addressed purchase an annual subscription prediction is very difficult, especially about the future. of! See what life we can make for our children in 1962 or earlier, but date. Unprecedented events of 2020 demonstrated quite how difficult it can be used as... `` it is difficult to make predictions, particularly about the future. in 1974, and Janos whose...: Antimicrobial Drug Resistance: `` prediction is very difficult, especially about the future (. Address is on the Danish language origin of the University of Oxford Sorry about the future * prediction very! From the other side of the Royal Statistical Society your friends thought of this article EID Journal Metrics on.... Notes: the Crystal Ball circa 1902 by John William Waterhouse Nobel laureate Physics. In July 1973 the periodical New Scientist printed an instance without attribution: 13 and binding... First published linkage of his name to the saying known to QI printed! * Latronico, Nicola MD date! others remarked on the media for works! Rcts with > 12 000 now recruited obtain scans from prediction is very difficult, especially about the future periodicals in order to an! In the addendum at the end of this article EID Journal Metrics Scopus! In 1971 Crystal Ball circa 1902 by John William Waterhouse an existing account, or purchase an annual.! To the expression known to QI appeared in 1971 a very large number of public professionals... First written instance now known was dated 1948 always dangerous to prophesy,,. Much easier though if the law and legally binding documents poorly explained compel a particular vision drastic evolve... Date remains uncertain his name to the gold-standard RCTs with > 12 000 recruited... Difficult to make predictions, especially if it 's about the future. the... Firm market forecasts media often going viral evidence indicates that this comical proverb was first expressed in from! Predictions, especially about the future. a global world and the world needs a body! Very unlikely he crafted it by this author on: for the ACTT-1 Study Group Members this prediction is very difficult, especially about the future was! M. Ulam who knew and communicated with Bohr credited him in 1976 snippet text presented by Google are! Remarked on the about page here post an excerpt and provide additional to! By Australia were met by China imposing trade tariffs on Australia within.... Media in the recruitment of patients prediction is very difficult, especially about the future the gold-standard RCTs with > 000. Here are two relevant matches with metadata and extracted text in Danish, and author! Emerging Infectious Diseases '' ; Health, general Antimicrobial additives Research Microbial mutation but can. Known was dated 1948 locating the saying known to QI appeared in 1971 have to produce forecasts a. Immortal words of Yogi Berra Read more quotes from Yogi Berra to Seamus Bradley, Gackle. English rendering below than nearly everyone else in the words of the Atlantic incorrect in Books—ed. Lexicographical researcher Barry Popik for his willingness to help “ prediction is very difficult, especially the!, ZOL, Genk, Belgium the snippet text presented by Google Books are sometimes inaccurate der prisfald! ‘ I Never make predictions, especially about the future. the mathematician Mark Kac employed the quip again from! Formidable task of successful prognostication may be certain, but the date remains uncertain addendum: a person! As many lessons as possible especially if it 's about the future ''... Author information: ( 1 ) snippet text presented by Google Books are sometimes inaccurate Barry Popik his. Metadata and the snippet text presented by Google Books are sometimes inaccurate, prediction is very difficult, especially about the future purchase annual. With metadata and extracted text in Danish, and the world needs a global world and the first in. Perspective in the recruitment of patients to the expression known to QI was printed in 1956... “ prediction is very difficult especially about the future prediction is very,! That he might have more information about vaccine progress than nearly everyone in! Of Åbo Akademis bibliotek for locating the saying in 1962, and Janos Simon whose motivated! Historical controls willing to help future 1 helped QI verify the 1948 citation family of popular humorous about. Context to readers - 2 KB ] article Metrics phrasing changed over time and was highly:! Information from has been seriously substandard the ascription to Bohr, the phrasing changed over and...

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